Concerns that the US South could become a Covid-19 hot spot

The South could still become a summertime Covid-19 hot spot America has made progress on Covid-19 vaccines. But that progress is unequal across the country. German Lopez Vox

All of a sudden, it seems like America is on the verge of liberation from Covid-19. Nearly half of all Americans have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has loosened recommendations for the fully vaccinated, particularly its mask guidance. States have followed the CDC’s lead, loosening their mask mandates and social distancing requirements.

But experts are increasingly worried that, in the southern half of the country, the return to normalcy could be a mirage and that summer could bring another wave of the virus in parts of the country. “I’m definitely worried,” Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me.

The concern isn’t about another nationwide surge, but potential state or local spikes. That’s because southern states, including much of the Sun Belt and especially the Deep South, face three distinct disadvantages this summer that other parts of the country don’t.

1) Lower vaccination rates: As the US has pushed ahead in its vaccination campaign, a significant gap between southern states and others has developed. In the Northeast, at least 50 percent of people in each state have received at least one dose of the vaccine, with a few states surpassing 60 percent. In Arizona and Texas, less than 45 percent of people have. In the Deep South, most states haven’t surpassed 40 percent rates — and Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi are below 35 percent. That leaves many unvaccinated people who remain vulnerable to the coronavirus.

2) Higher temperatures: While the summer brings outdoor activities for northern parts of the US, it can do the opposite for southern states. As the heat climbs past the 90s and into the 100s, people tend to go into air-conditioned or at least closed-off indoor areas. That’s bad news for the spread of Covid-19, since the virus has a much easier time spreading in indoor, poorly ventilated spaces. This seemed to lead to more spread in the Sun Belt last summer.

3) Lower adherence to precautions: The first two problems on this list could be mitigated with adherence to Covid-19-related precautions, such as social distancing and masking. But due to the political polarization of such measures, Republican-dominated southern states tend to have lower rates of masking and social distancing than much of the US, based on Carnegie Mellon University’s COVIDcast.

Put these three factors together, and it’s possible that southern states could see a repeat of last summer, when Covid-19 cases at first hit low levels then surged. ...