Commentary: Red states in more trouble from coronavirus pandemic

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Wed, 2021-07-07 18:28 — mike kraft

The spread of the Delta variant in relatively unvaccinated parts of the U.S. is getting worse.

Nationwide, the number of new Covid-19 cases is holding steady. But that steadiness hides two dueling realities, in two different Americas.

In many urban and suburban communities, Covid continues to plummet. The rate of new daily cases has fallen below three per 100,000 residents in large cities like Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington. As a point of comparison, the national rate of new daily cases peaked last winter above 75 per 100,000 people.

But in less populated areas — which tend to be more politically conservative and skeptical of vaccines — the virus is now surging, largely from the contagious Delta variant. The states with the worst outbreaks are Arkansas and Missouri (each with more than 16 new daily cases per 100,000 people) followed by Florida (10), Nevada (10), Wyoming (nine) and Utah (eight).

If these outbreaks were concentrated among younger people, it would be less worrisome, because Covid, including the Delta variant, is overwhelmingly mild for children and young adults. Yet even many middle-aged and older adults are not vaccinated in parts of the U.S. They are catching the virus as a result, and some are dying.

There is a clear relationship between a state’s Covid death rate over the past week and its overall vaccination rate:

...(Graph)

(You can look up any state’s data here.)

The biggest tragedy is that this situation is avoidable. Highly effective vaccines are available to virtually any American adult who wants one — a privilege that residents of many other countries do not have. Hundreds of U.S. clinics, including in rural communities, offer immediate, walk-in shots.

Still, only 54 percent of adults in rural areas have received at least one vaccine shot, according to the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll, compared with 72 percent of urban residents. Kaiser found that vaccination rates were also below average for Americans under 50; Black Americans; Republicans; and people without a college degree.

“It is the unvaccinated people who are dying,” Dr. Thomas Dobbs, Mississippi’s state health officer, said, according to the television station WLBT. “The unvaccinated people who are going to the hospital. The unvaccinated people who are getting diagnosed, for the most part.” ...