U.S. Covid cases are probably undercounted, as tracking efforts fade

Nation's latest COVID-19 wave largely hidden from view, health experts say 'There's a lot of COVID out there,' one expert acknowledged. ABC News ABC News

Current COVID-19 cases are just a fraction of what they were at the peak of the omicron wave.

But many people in the country may be noticing what seems to be a flood of cases in their social circles.

Health experts say this anecdotal evidence may not be simply coincidence, as the U.S. may be in a “hidden” wave — one much larger than reported data would suggest.

“There's a lot of COVID out there. I see it in my social circles, in my kids' schools and in the hospital employee infection numbers,” Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News. “We are clearly in a wave.”

Although it is clear that infection rates have been steadily rising in recent weeks to their highest reported level since mid-February, scientists acknowledge that it is difficult to know how high COVID-19 case and even hospitalization numbers truly are, given the likely “substantially” undercounting of infections.

This is due in part to changes in data collection and reporting and the proliferation of at-home tests. Some state officials report that health departments and healthcare facilities have also ended traditional tracking of COVID-19 patients, which epidemiologists say make it more difficult to know how many patients are coming into hospitals in need of care.

Last month, former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimated that officials were likely only picking up “one in seven or one in eight” infections.

And President Joe Biden’s new coronavirus response coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha, acknowledged that there are "a lot of infections" last week, likely the result of highly infectious omicron subvariants spreading across the country.

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